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WHEN FLORIDA MIGRATION IS DOWN 93% SINCE ITS PEAK IN 2021, A DISCUSSION MUST BE HAD – but if you prefer to watch it on Youtube instead, click here!
In my latest market discussion, I sat down with longtime Sarasota area Realtor Ryan Vlasic of the Coldwell Banker Siesta Key office to talk about something we don’t hear enough about: migration.
We talk endlessly about pricing — what homes should sell for, where values are headed, whether sellers can still push 2022 numbers. But what’s driving demand underneath all of that? Migration.
Here’s the reality: migration into Florida is down 93% from its 2021 peak. That’s not a small shift — that’s a dramatic slowdown. And when fewer people are moving into the state, especially compared to the frenzy of 2020–2022, that absolutely impacts absorption rates, buyer urgency, and seller leverage.
This is one of the key reasons we’re seeing sellers struggle when they attempt to “test” the 2026 market at yesterday’s prices. Buyers today are watching inventory climb. They see days on market extending. They understand they have negotiating power again — and they’re using it.
Overpricing in 2026? It Will Backfire.
The pandemic-era pricing window has closed. Sellers who anchor to 2020–2023 peak values without adjusting for today’s demand risk sitting, reducing, and ultimately netting less.
In a recent video, I outline four specific reasons why testing the market in 2026 is not a strategy I recommend. Today’s buyers are analytical. They’re patient. And they’re willing to walk.
Strategic pricing is no longer optional — it’s critical.
Why Buyers Are Still Purchasing
That said, buyers haven’t disappeared.
Ryan and I also discussed why people are still actively purchasing in Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte counties:
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Lifestyle relocations
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Long-term primary residence planning
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Strategic second homes
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Select investment opportunities
When it comes to investment properties, underwriting properly is everything. We advise buyers to evaluate realistic rent projections, insurance costs, taxes, maintenance, vacancy assumptions, and long-term appreciation — not just optimistic short-term returns. The goal is simple: make a decision that supports your pocketbook and your peace of mind over the long haul.
Direct, Honest Market Guidance
The Sarasota market is evolving — not collapsing, not exploding — evolving. My commitment is to provide clear, data-driven guidance so you can make smart decisions, whether you’re buying or selling. CHECK out my last video about exactly this, if you click here!
If you’re considering selling in Manatee, Sarasota, or Charlotte County, let’s have a real conversation about strategy. Pricing correctly in today’s environment is how you protect your equity and position yourself for strong terms — regardless of market conditions.
And if you’re purchasing, let’s make sure you’re underwriting intelligently and negotiating from a position of strength.
Communication is my reputation — and your goals are always the priority.
Q&A: Sarasota Migration & Market Strategy
1. How does the 93% drop in migration affect sellers?
When inbound migration slows dramatically, demand naturally softens. Fewer new residents mean fewer competing buyers. That increases inventory levels and strengthens buyer negotiating power — putting downward pressure on overpriced listings.
2. Is 2026 a bad time to sell?
Not at all — but it is a strategic time to sell. Sellers who price accurately based on today’s absorption rate and buyer behavior can still achieve excellent results. Overpricing, however, is likely to extend days on market and reduce leverage.
3. Are investment properties still worth considering?
Yes — but only with disciplined underwriting. Investors should evaluate conservative rental projections, insurance, taxes, maintenance, and long-term appreciation potential. The right deal makes sense on paper and supports long-term financial stability.
CONTACT ME ANY TIME
Complimentary Consultations | Value of your Home
SHAYLA TWIT, Sarasota FL Realtor, CLHMS Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
CORCORAN Dwellings 1947 Ringling Blvd Sarasota, FL 34236
CALL / TEXT: (941) 544-7690
EMAIL: shaylatwit@gmail.com
MLS: https://www.shaylatwit.com
